Based on the image, the probabilities of winning Copa America 2024 at the beginning were:
- Argentina: 30%
- Brazil: 25%
- Uruguay: 14%
- Mexico: 8%
- Colombia: 6%
Given that the tournament is now at the final stage and the final match is between Argentina and Colombia, we will update the probabilities based on their performance and head-to-head records.
### Head-to-Head Record (Last Five Games from 2022)
- Argentina wins: 1
- Draws: 3
- Colombia wins: 1
From the last five games:
- Argentina won 20% of the matches.
- Colombia won 20% of the matches.
- 60% of the matches ended in a draw.
### Probability Calculation
We will start with the initial probabilities and then adjust them based on the head-to-head record.
### Argentina's Updated Probability
Given the previous probability of Argentina winning the tournament is 30% and their head-to-head performance against Colombia:
- Probability based on head-to-head: (1 win + 3 draws/2) / 5 = (1 + 1.5) / 5 = 50%
- Adjusting initial probability based on head-to-head performance:
- Updated Argentina probability = 30% * 0.5 = 15%
### Colombia's Updated Probability
Given the previous probability of Colombia winning the tournament is 6% and their head-to-head performance against Argentina:
- Probability based on head-to-head: (1 win + 3 draws/2) / 5 = (1 + 1.5) / 5 = 50%
- Adjusting initial probability based on head-to-head performance:
- Updated Colombia probability = 6% * 0.5 = 3%
### Adjusted Probabilities
We need to normalize these probabilities since the total must sum to 100%.
Total combined probability = 15% (Argentina) + 3% (Colombia) = 18%
Normalized probabilities:
- Argentina: \( \frac{15\%}{18\%} \times 100\% = 83.33\% \)
- Colombia: \( \frac{3\%}{18\%} \times 100\% = 16.67\% \)
### Final Probabilities
- Argentina: 83.33%
- Colombia: 16.67%
These updated probabilities reflect Argentina's stronger position and Colombia's lower chances of winning the tournament, considering their initial likelihoods and recent head-to-head performance.
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